Thursday, February 16, 2012

Observations on the 2012 Election

Ever since I was in college I have survived on very little sleep and if I get five hours in a night I'm perfectly happy. I'm only telling you that because I'm starting to write this at 5 AM and I have been awake since 2:30 after having a five hour 'nap' or a full night's sleep.

I was just reading a little about Rick Santorum and thinking again how much of a dream come true it would be for him to win the GOP nomination. I don't think President Obama could ask for more, I mean seriously Sarah Palin would stand a better chance of beating him in November. With no primaries this coming week the still surging Santorum is leading in almost every poll now. Next up is Michigan and a loss by Romney there could send Willard and his millions to the ass heap of political history.

Even some states where Romney won he has now lost. First in Iowa where the state GOP reversed itself and declared Santorum the winner and now it could possibly happen again in Maine. On February 12th Romney was declared the winner of the Maine Caucus by a margin of 194 votes over Ron Paul. Some towns postponed their caucuses due to weather and some vote counts were just flat out missed yet Romney was declared the winner that night. In the end it doesn't matter much because a caucus is a non-binding party function, not bound by state election controls, and what counts is the delegate selection convention where Paul always thought he would win. Still for Willard a reverse in Maine would be another hole in a suddenly floundering campaign. 

Short of a new disaster the GOP now has little hope of beating Obama on his handling of the economy so it's now shifting to its backup plan, a return to the culture wars, and Santorum only emphasizes that. The latest chapter of the war has the GOP calling Obama's contraceptive mandate the opening of a 'war on religion' even though the mandate is the national equivalent of laws already on the books in 28 states. It is lost on them and their allies, the Conference of Catholic Bishops, that the largest Catholic university in the nation, DePaul, offers free contraceptives and has for years.

Finally I give you the 1990 Supreme Court case, Oregon v. Smith, in which the court ruled the states have the power to accommodate religious beliefs but they aren't constitutionally obligated to do so. The author of this decision? Arch conservative and catholic Justice Antonin Scalia. If anybody started a war on religion it was this man.

noon update - A poll that just came out now has Santorum leading in Ohio with 42% to Romney's 24%.